Louisiana Democrats, you may have a problem.
I’m thrilled that across the board, without exaggeration, our state’s early voting numbers were astounding. More Democrats, more Republicans and more Black voters cast ballots during the Oct. 20-27 early voting period than in the early voting period in any previous midterm election..
If Democratic gubernatorial candidate Shawn Wilson saw this turnout when he ran against Republican gubernatorial candidate Jeff Landry, we’d likely be calling Wilson “Gov. Wilson.”
More Democrats voted early than Republicans, and Black voters surpassed their share of registered voters (which stands at more than 31%), with an early voting percentage of more than 34%. Across Louisiana, this looks good.
But the election is not over.
Democratic Party officials are ecstatic with the early returns, and they’re not stopping. They’ve identified hundreds of precinct organizers in 50 parishes to increase the turnout in places where voters are more likely to support their candidates — if they can get them to the polls. Despite early success, Democrats were busy in Caddo this week, ramping up their ground game to get more of their voters out on Election Day.
Some Democrats are popping high fives, cheering and laughing. Some Republicans aren’t smiling, but they’re certain they will hold their own and pull off the biggest of wins — because that’s what has happened for decades in Louisiana: Republicans win statewide.
Several demographers and pollsters have said while Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Jamie Davis is doing much better than anticipated and making his challenge to Republican U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow a tighter race, they won’t say Davis can win.
As this newspaper’s Tyler Bridges , the last time a Black man won statewide elected office was 150 years ago.
Nearly 521,000 voters showed up in Louisiana. More than 53,500 voters showed up in East Baton Rouge Parish. Caddo Parish had more than 24,500 voters. More than 47,000 voted in Orleans Parish. More than 44,000 voted in Jefferson Parish. More than 26,800 voters went to the polls in Lafayette. Calcasieu Parish had more than 18,900 voters. St. John the Baptist Parish had more than 6,000 voters. St. James Parish had more than 3,500 voters go to early polling locations.
Times-Picayune columnist Will Sutton on Thursday, September 12, 2019.
STAFF PHOTO BY CHRIS GRANGER
It’s impossible to know how the high number of No Party voters — or those registered without a party affiliation — voted, but there are 27.8% of them, and I suspect most of them are looking for a change from the antics of President Donald Trump and a Republican U.S. Congress that hasn’t pushed back on the president, even when they know he’s wrong. And that’s not even factoring in the devastating impact of the U.S. Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act.
Though there’s an undeniable Blacklash, these aren’t Black issues. These are concerns held by many Americans. And they increasing feel that the political system is rigged against them. They are disgusted that Gov. Jeff Landry and the state Legislature conspired in a mid-decade redistricting to gerrymander away the state’s second majority Black district, the 6th Congressional seat held by U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields until the year ends.
The problem is that as many Democrats and as many Black voters who showed up during early voting, it may be not enough. I’ve looked at the parish-by-parish numbers. There are parishes with large numbers of Black voters who did not add to the success. There are parishes with successful increases, but so far it doesn’t appear enough to win in a state where most people vote for the person with an “R” by their name.
And that could be a critical failure. When the astronauts who were en route to the moon on Apollo 13 mission in 1970 called down to report, “Houston, we have a problem,” it was nearly 56 hours into the mission after they had blasted off successfully. They never made it to their destination.
Democrats, Black voters and those who want change may need to remember that. Enthusiasm after launch may not be enough. Davis and others still have to land this thing.