Itβs entirely fair to view Tuesday's U.S. Senate finale as a test of Trumpism in Louisiana.
U.S. Rep. Julie Letlow, the Republican nominee running with President Donald Trumpβs as he likes to say, entered the race at his urging, then won a two-stage GOP primary on the strength of his name, which she at every possible opportunity.
Now that his name is , even in reliably red Louisiana, Letlowβs taking a stab at reaching beyond the MAGA coalition. But itβs awfully late in the process to change the subject from the larger-than-life president to herself.
So no matter what happens Tuesday β whether Letlow wins handily, as originally expected when Louisiana Republicans concocted the new primary system; or if she loses to Democrat Jamie Davis, a long-shot possibility; or if she emerges with a narrower-than-expected victory, an increasingly plausible scenario β her fate will tell us much about Trumpβs strength or diminishment.
And thatβs not all it will reveal.
If the election is a test of Trumpβs brand as much as Letlowβs, itβll also tell us something about the political strength of another politician: Gov. Jeff Landry.
Itβs true that Trump gets all the attention. And itβs true that his fury at outgoing incumbent Bill Cassidy over the senatorβs 2021 vote to convict him following his second impeachment drove Trumpβs intense interest in a race that is unlikely to change the overall balance of partisan power.
A third thing thatβs true is that has his fingerprints all over Letlowβs campaign.
This is Letlowβs campaign, and how to run it has been her choice. But Landry has been there every step of the way.
Another Republican who coveted the seat, state Treasurer John Fleming, insisted Landry encouraged Trump to back Letlow, which the governor denied.
But itβs undeniable that, from the earliest days of the campaign, Landry has been hitting up donors for contributions to Letlowβs effort. He endorsed her, and set about early on to land her the state Republican Party endorsement β although he later wound up playing defense and helping dissuade the partyβs executive committee from backing Fleming.
Also, Landryβs political operation is closely tied to the effort, led by Kyle Ruckert, the governorβs former chief of staff and now a general consultant and campaign strategist for Letlowβs campaign, and Courtney Guastella, a fundraiser whoβs worked with Landry.
So while the results will say plenty about both Trump and Letlow, they will also take the measure of the governorβs political muscle.
This is not a scenario thatβs worked out well for him in the recent past.
Yes, Landry easily won his own election over a lackluster field in 2023, but his subsequent efforts to convince voters to went down in flames.
One poll earlier this year pegged his . A 2025 poll after heβd made a raft of early, aggressive moves such as the creation of party primaries, which other polls show are unpopular.
But itβs Tuesdayβs results that will act as an opener to next yearβs governor race, when Landry is planning to seek a second term.
With Trump, as usual, sucking up all the oxygen, Louisiana voters probably wonβt be thinking about that much when they make their choices for Senate.
Still, the outcome will set the tone for the 2027 electoral cycle, and a poorer-than-expected showing for Letlow would not only reflect on Landry but embolden his opponents.
And unlike this year, itβll be all on him.