A disturbance nearing the Gulf of Mexico could be the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and make landfall Wednesday night on the Texas-Louisiana border, according to latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
A tropical storm watch spanning the Texas and Louisiana coastlines was issued at 10 a.m. for the disturbance currently over south Texas that is expected to emerge over the Gulf and strengthen into Tropical Storm Arthur.
Now called Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the NHCβs first βcone of uncertaintyβ forecast track, the disturbance was 65 miles southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas and 360 miles southwest of Lake Charles on Tuesday morning. It has maximum winds of 30 mph and is moving northeast at 6 mph.
The disturbance is expected to keep northeast and increase in forward speed over the next couple of days. It could move off the Texas coast overnight Tuesday, according to NHC forecasters. The cyclone will then strengthen into Tropical Storm Arthur Wednesday and is expected to weaken Thursday after landfall.
As of 10 a.m. Tuesday, NHC forecasters gave the system a 60% chance of developing over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance of developing over the next seven days.
Effects for Louisiana
Louisiana is bracing for , strong winds and dangerous flash flooding as the disturbance moves toward the warm Gulf waters.
βRegardless of whether it develops or not, thereβs a lot of tropical moisture headed in our direction over the next couple of days β¦ thatβs going to be one of our big issues,β Times-Picayune senior meteorologist Damon Singleton said.
The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of up to 12 inches or more Thursday in parts of the mid-to-upper Texas coast, a swath of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama and even the far west portion of the Florida Panhandle
The worst-case scenario for rainfall could go as high as 15 to 20 inches in some areas near Baton Rouge, Acadiana and the northshore, the NHC said Tuesday.
In New Orleans, Singleton said up to 4 inches of rain or more could be seen by end of day Thursday.Β
Southeast Louisiana is also facing heavy rain from a different front, and a flash flood warning is in effect for an area that include Reserve, Donaldsonville and Gramercy until 1:45 p.m.
The storms associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 are expected to flood streets and roadways and lead to closures. across southeast Louisiana on Tuesday morning.
Preparations underway
Local officials in the New Orleans area were beginning to make preparations Tuesday for the storm and any effects it could bring to the metro area.
St. Charles Parish and St. John the Baptist Parish announced locations where and other local governments were beginning to issue information to residents.
In Jefferson Parish, officials asked residents to make sure their storm drains are clear and to prepare for any other disruptions. Parish drainage officials said 196 of the parish's 198 pumps are currently operational. The two out of service are at the Harvey pump station and the Pailet pump station, but both have additional pumping capacity.
In New Orleans, the Sewerage & Water Board's online dashboard says that the drainage system has more than enough power generation capacity to run all of the city's pumps. Currently, 87 of 93 major pumps are available.