WASHINGTON – Democrats are set to take control of the U.S. House, which will oust the two Louisiana Republicans who have led the lower chamber for the past three years.
Democrats also took control of the U.S. Senate by winning races in states that had voted Republican for years, such as South Carolina, Kansas, Ohio, and Iowa, according to near-complete but uncertified counts in eastern and midwestern states.
The main question still to be decided in the 435 House races is just how many seats over the 218 minimum the Democrats will win in the lower chamber.
The majority elects the speaker, who decides the legislative agenda, picks committee chairs, and assigns office space in the House. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, is expected to be elected in January as the first Black speaker.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Benton, has held the top job since October 2023. The second-highest ranking leader is Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson. It’s the first time in history that the top two House leaders are from the same state.
Final numbers probably won’t be known for a few more days as ballots continued to be counted, or recounted if the contests are close. Potential legal challenges could be filed by race losers — or by the Trump administration.
But the writing is on the wall. Johnson told Punchbowl that Republicans couldn’t overcome the historical trend of the party whose president is in the White House losing the majority in either the House or the Senate or both.
“There's a lot of reasons for it. It’s very, very difficult to overcome. And it looks like history will be kept tonight,” Johnson said in Shreveport.
Scalise said in Metairie, “I will continue to fight for commonsense policies that strengthen our communities, grow our economy, and keep our families safe.”
Democrats needed to pick up four seats held by Republicans to win the majority. The party’s candidates were doing remarkably well in districts long held by Republicans. For instance, in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, which Trump won by 15 points in 2024, was won by Democrat Zach Dembo.
Should the Democratic margin in the House get closer to the 25 or 30 seats, that would indicate a blue wave in line with handicapper predictions. A landslide of that magnitude also likely would result in the GOP eventually losing the majority in the Senate.
An undeclared war with Iran, high fuel prices, and tariffs were among a sheaf of issues that led to historically low support numbers for the president.
Democrats were energized, but even some Republicans were dissatisfied.
What’s next for Johnson, Scalise
Whether Johnson and Scalise remain in GOP leadership, and in what roles, likely revolves around how many seats go Democratic.
In the past, Republican speakers who lost the majority were removed from leadership by their colleagues and sometimes quit the House altogether.
Johnson replaced Kevin McCarthy, R-California, who struggled after the 2022 midterms led to far fewer GOP seats than were expected. McCarthy resigned from the House.
Johnson and Scalise have declined to address their plans, insisting that the Republicans would maintain the majority and they’d keep their jobs.
Since both faced only nominal Democratic opposition in their own races, they relentlessly campaigned for GOP candidates all around the country. Johnson spent part of election day in McAllen on the Texas border with Mexico before returning to his homebase in Shreveport.
Despite the results, Johnson and Scalise remain in charge until new members are sworn in January. Almost as soon as the House and Senate return to Capitol Hill next week, the lame duck 119th Congress has a high stack of work.
Sitting before the House and Senate are resolutions passed by the other chamber asking Trump to either get congressional permission to continue the military action in Iran or cease hostilities.
And Congress has until December 10 to pass the legislation necessary to either fund the federal government or further postpone a final decision. Otherwise, the government will have stop operations.
But that’s only a few of the bills still awaiting the final votes. In the Senate, three Trump nominations to New Orleans federal benches will need to be confirmed before the end of the year or they’ll have to be renominated after the newly elected 120th Congress is sworn on January 3.