A was near tropical depression strength Tuesday afternoon and is expected to strengthen when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico overnight, the .
The system is expected to be Tropical Storm Arthur at landfall near the Texas-Louisiana line Wednesday night and drench parts of both states, as well as portions of the Gulf Coast, over the next several days.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Louisiana from Sabine Pass to Morgan City.
“Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards,” Eric Blake, senior hurricane forecaster for the NHC, said Tuesday afternoon.
Flooding has already hit some Louisiana cities and the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and some areas could see up to 12 inches of rain by Friday’s end.
Flash flooding risk from tropical disturbance over Texas on Tuesday, June 16, 2026.
NOAA
So where will the rainfall hotspots be? Here’s what the Hurricane Center reported at 3:30 p.m. Tuesday.
Tuesday, June 16
There’s a moderate risk, at least a 55% chance, for excessive rainfall capable of leading to isolated flash flooding across a swath of Louisiana overnight. Cities in this risk zone include Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, parts of the northshore and Mississippi cities including Picayune and Poplarville.
New Orleans, the south shore and most of Slidell only face a slight risk, or at least 15% of excessive rainfall overnight.
Wednesday, June 17
The risk for New Orleans grows on Wednesday, with the NHC placing the Crescent City inside the moderate risk zone as the system, which could strengthen to Tropical Storm Arthur by then, moves over the Gulf and inches closer to Louisiana.
The moderate risk zone shifted slightly east overall for Wednesday to also include parts of Slidell and Hancock County, Mississippi. Cities including Lafayette and Baton Rouge stay in the moderate risk zone Wednesday.
Thursday, June 18
As the system moves over land Thursday, the entire northshore — including Mandeville, Slidell, Covington, Madisonville and Abita Springs — shifts into the moderate risk zone. All of the Mississippi Coast — including Bay St. Louis, Gulfport, Biloxi, Ocean Springs and Pascagoula — also moves into the moderate risk zone. New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lafayette move to slight risk.