Hurricane Isaias is intensifying in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico despite battling some wind shear and remains a Category 1 hurricane Thursday afternoon, in its 1 p.m. update.
Isaias is to a near-major hurricane over the next 24 hours as the storm begins to take a northeasterly turn, said NHC senior hurricane specialist Philippe Papin.
The hurricane, however, will weaken a bit before landfall overnight Friday on the northern Gulf Coast, with the current track slightly west compared to most of Wednesday’s forecasts.
Landfall is predicted on the Alabama Gulf Coast near the Florida state line. A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida, including the cities of Pascagoula, Mobile, Gulf Shores and Orange Beach.
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft was investigating Isaias.
Wind speeds
Isaias had winds of 85 mph at 1p p.m. Thursday and was moving east-northeast at 10 mph. The hurricane will strengthen in the warm waters of the central Gulf, with max winds predicted at 110 mph, just under Category 3 status.
Isaias was about 355 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Forecasters said Isaias will hit strong vertical wind shear as it inches closer to the coastline and that models show it would lead weakening in the 12 to 24 hours before landfall. The wind field from the storm, though, will also expand.
“Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward speed of the storm,” Papin said.
Isaias 5-day cone at 4 a.m. on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026
Courtesy NOAA
Rain totals, ‘dirty side’
Isaias is expected to dump rain for hours along the Gulf Coast region starting Friday.
The effects from Isaias will be worst on the east side of the eyewall, , and most at risk for excessive rainfall are the areas from Mobile, Alabama to Pensacola, Florida, the National Weather Service said.
Three to 7 inches are projected, with some localized areas forecast to get as much as 10 inches.
“Considering the soils are already wetter than normal over much of this area from recent rainfall, this amount of heavy rain — much of it occurring in a 12 to 18 hour period — will cause numerous flash floods, some of which will be significant,” NWS forecaster Joe Wegman said.
When will weather impacts begin?
Tropical storm-force winds will start being felt Friday morning from southeast Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. Hurricane-force winds will pick up as the wind field expands as Isaias approaches landfall, the NHC said.
Rain will begin Friday and likely last through Saturday and Isaias accelerates inland. Flash flooding in urban areas is likely and river flooding is possible.
Storm surge
Storm surge advisories are in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to Egmont Key, Florida. The most significant surge, predicted at 5 to 7 feet, will impact the coast between Ocean Springs and Indian Pass, Florida.
One to 3 feet of surge is expected on the coastlines from Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River and for Lake Pontchartrain.
Three to 5 feet of surge is forecast from the mouth of the Mississippi and coastal southeast Louisiana to Biloxi.
How will Isaias impact Louisiana?
Parts of coastal southeast Louisiana in Orleans, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Tammany and Terrebonne parishes are under tropical storm and storm surge warnings. Three to 5 feet of storm surge is expected in areas including Venice and Grand Isle.
The storm is expected to bring rain, gusty winds and isolated flash flooding to portions of the New Orleans metro, especially areas east of Interstate 55, NWS New Orleans said. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for Orleans Parish, areas around Lake Pontchartrain and near Houma in Terrebonne Parish.