Louisiana is keeping a close eye on what is expected to become the season's first hurricane on Thursday as it churns and strengthens in the Gulf, but indicated the state could be spared the worst β a huge relief ahead of a busy tourism weekend.
Tropical Storm Isaias came as somewhat of a surprise for Gulf Coast residents more accustomed to bracing for hurricanes earlier in the season. But the Gulf's warm waters are helping supply Isaias with the momentum it needs to coalesce into what forecasters said is likely to be a Category 2 storm, and even near Category 3, before it makes landfall late Friday or early Saturday.
While last-minute shifts cannot be ruled out, (NHC) on Wednesday put Isaias' track significantly to the east of Louisiana's coast. The center of the forecast cone was located around the Alabama-Florida border, while a hurricane watch was in effect from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass, Florida.Β
But the effects are not limited to the cone, and Louisiana may not be spared entirely. A tropical storm watch was issued from the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis.
A storm surge watch was also in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River all the way to Yankeetown, Florida. Surge predictions from the river's mouth to Ocean Springs were in the range of 3 to 5 feet, while other areas closer to the storm's center could expect 5 to 7 feet.Β
Local officials were monitoring it, but largely holding off on any major decisions before more is known about Isaias' eventual landfall. While of course not wishing harm on any other state, organizers were hopeful of avoiding disruption to a weekend scheduled to feature sold-out hotels and major events, from pro wrestling to a big ophthalmology convention and the Saints-Vikings game in the Superdome on Sunday.
A pageant of other festivals and other fundraisers in the New Orleans area were also on the agenda, including Blues and Barbecue, the opening weekend of Oktoberfest at Deutches Haus, Gentilly Fest, Hispanic Heritage Month at Lafreniere Park and the National Fried Chicken Festival, which was rescheduled from last weekend due to rain.
There is also the roster of less official events long scheduled to take place during what is typically one of the city's most pleasant times of the year. Engaged couples, for example, have booked churches, reception halls and restaurants for weddings long in advance.
As of Wednesday morning, hotel occupancy in the more than 26,000 rooms downtown was projected to top 98% Friday night and 99% on Saturday.
βHonestly, it kept me up last night,β said Walt Leger III, president and CEO of New Orleans & Co., the cityβs tourism marketing office. "This is a big weekend for us, but it is continuing to look a little more promising β¦ with the track heading more to the east."
Warm Gulf waters
The NHC's forecast at 4 pm on Wednesday showed Isaias with maximum winds of 65 mph while moving east-northeast at around 8 mph. It is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday, then reach peak strength with around 110 mph winds on Friday as it turns north.
Wind shear is expected to increase before Isaias makes landfall, tearing into the hurricaneβs structure, though it is likely to remain a Category 1 or 2 storm as it moves ashore, forecasters said. If the track holds, lower Plaquemines Parish could still see significant rainfall and wind.
"From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle," NHC forecaster Eric Blake wrote.
A convergence of factors were helping produce a strong hurricane at such a relatively late date. While wind shear related to the El Nino weather pattern has helped limit hurricane formation this season, the Gulfβs surface temperatures are also considerably warm β near records for this time of year, forecasters said.
The warm water and lighter wind shear were expected to allow Isaias to rapidly intensify. Forecasts were showing shear increasing later in the week.
'Good news for us'
There were few major closures in Louisiana by Wednesday evening. The state Department of Wildlife and Fisheries said it was closing Elmer's Island Wildlife Refuge near Grand Isle at 12 pm on Thursday out of precaution.
Otherwise, officials in Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard and St. Tammany β all under Tropical Storm watches to varying degrees β kept a close eye and waited.
"We are closely monitoring the storm and staying weather aware as the system continues to develop," St. Bernard Parish government said in a statement. "Current forecasts show Isaias tracking farther east, but we could still see some rain and gusty winds in St. Bernard Parish."
President Donald Trump was scheduled to attend the Alabama-Georgia game on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. When asked if it would still attend on Wednesday, Trump indicated he was unaware of the hurricane but if emergency preparedness is necessary.
"We'll have to see. I hadn't heard about a hurricane," he said at a White House event.Β Β
While late August is a cursed timeframe for south Louisiana when it comes to destructive hurricanes β Katrina, Laura and Ida hit then, to name a few β October is not without precedent. Hurricane Zeta, for example, sped across southeast Louisiana after making landfall as a Category 3 on Oct. 28, 2020.
This time, hopeful signs were accumulating, at least as far as Louisiana is concerned.
"This is good news for us," said meteorologist Damon Singleton. "The cone doesn't even include southeast Louisiana anymore."